国航斥资增持国泰：“貌合”还是“绝配”？
2009-08-24 英国《金融时报》 汤姆·米切尔(Tom Mitchell)、 吉密欧( Jamil Anderlini)中国国际航空股份有限公司（Air China Limited，简称“国航”）如今稳坐亚洲最大航空公司之一的副驾驶席。本周早些时候，国航宣布将增持香港国泰航空有限公司（Cathay Pacific Airways Limited，简称“国泰航空”）的股份。
作为中国旗舰航空公司，国航斥资63亿港元（合8.17亿美元），将所持国泰股份从17.5%提升至29.99%，距强制要求其向国泰发起全面收购要约的门槛仅一步之遥。
作为交易的一部分，中信泰富（Citic Pacific）同时向国泰控股股东太古股份有限公司（Swire Pacific）出售了另外2%的国泰股份。中信泰富是中国最大国家投资集团的香港分公司。
国航与国泰的配对令人瞩目。两家公司于3年前达成了一项广泛的交叉持股协议。2006年那一系列谈判的代号为“星辰计划”（Project Constellation），意指国航国内航线与国泰国际航线网络的互补性。
但从文化上讲，两家航空公司依然貌合神离。国航由正式的中国共产党党员经营。相比之下，国泰的管理者则是英国“太谷的太子爷们”，替英国太古集团（John Swire & Sons）打理香港的商业股份。英国太古集团自19世纪起就开始在前英国殖民地——香港开展业务。
两家集团的初始协议划定了国航和太古股份在国泰的持股上限，双方只有在对方同意的情况下，才可以超越这一限制。例如，未经国泰董事会批准，国航不得发出或接受收购要约。
据国泰首席运营官史乐山（John Slosar）表示，国泰可以进一步增持目前18%的国航股权，但这么做的可能性不大。本周他在一次记者会上表示，国泰目前有许多事情要做。
与全球多数竞争对手一样，国泰正竭力应对航空业最严重的低迷之一。本月，该集团公布了今年上半年业绩报告，营业亏损高达7.65亿港元。
相比之下，国航在与国泰进入最后一轮谈判时，境况则相对较好。
在政府资金的支持下，国航似乎已度过了动荡的最糟时期，今年上半年利润激增50%。按市值计算，国航是全球最大航空公司，排在新加坡航空（Singapore Airlines）之前，市值几乎是国泰的2倍、英国航空（British Airways）的9倍。
身兼太古股份及国泰航空两家公司主席的白纪图（Christopher Pratt）表示，国泰和国航将继续推进现有的合作关系。
白纪图表示：“新股权架构并不代表国泰航空现有的策略、营运及财务管理会出现任何变动。”但希望看到双方加强营运合作、拓展代码共享协议、人员培训和分享最佳实践，双方就此都有大量宝贵经验供对方借鉴。
双方的合作包括建立一家合资货运公司的计划，但这种合作关系成效如何仍需拭目以待。国航习惯于在国内市场上耀武扬威，其前任董事长李家祥被任命为中国民用航空局（Civil Aviation Authority）局长后更是如此。
李家祥升迁之时，最近那场围绕着中国政府是否应准许新航大举入股总部位于上海的中国东方航空（China Eastern）的政治斗争正酣。新航是国泰的区域性竞争对手。
李家祥调升民航局局长，被视为保守派的一个胜利——他们希望将外国人挡在中国国内市场之外，同时发展一到两家具有全球竞争力的“超级航空公司”。
在2007年出版的着作《大道相通》（Route to Fly）中，李家祥提醒人们提防外国企业“占据中国的空中资源”。
今年，通过巧妙操纵和战略性购入东航上市股票，国航成功阻止了新航投资东航的计划，不过，国航试图吞并东航和觊觎已久的上海航运中心的半吊子尝试，最终也以失败告终。
即使如今国航已将目光转向了国泰，它的收购之路依然并非畅通无阻。
除了早些时候与太古和国泰达成的协议条款，根据管辖国际航线经营权的香港国际民航协定，香港本地的航空公司必须在当地注册，并将香港作为“主要营业地点”。
过去，这并未阻止中国国有企业的香港分公司控股当地航空公司。但对于太古和国泰而言，这至少为它们提供了额外的保护，以免被国航拥抱得透不过气来。
译者：何黎
英文原文：
Air China is firmly ensconced in the co-pilot"s chair of one of Asia"s largest carriers, after announcing a deal this week to boost its stake in Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways.
China"s flag carrier paid HK$6.3bn ($817m) to raise its holding in Cathay from 17.5 per cent to 29.99 per cent – just shy of the threshold forcing it to launch a full takeover bid.
As part of the deal, Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong unit of China"s largest state investment group, sold another 2 per cent of its holding to Swire Pacific, Cathay"s controlling shareholder.
Air China and Cathay, which announced a wide-ranging cross-shareholding agreement three years ago, are a compelling match. The 2006 negotiations were code-named “Project Constellation” – a reference to the complementary nature of Air China"s domestic and Cathay"s international route networks.
Culturally, however, the two airlines remain an odd couple. Air China is run by card-carrying members of the Chinese Communist party. Cathay, in contrast, is managed by the British “Swire princes” who look after the Hong Kong business interests of UK-based John Swire & Sons, which has had operations in the former crown colony since the 19th century.
The two groups" original agreement outlines share ceilings in Cathay that Air China and Swire can only exceed with agreement of the other party. Air China, for example, cannot make or accept a takeover offer that is not approved by Cathay"s board.
Cathay is free to increase its 18 per cent stake in Air China but is unlikely to do so, according to John Slosar, chief operating officer. “We"ve got a lot on our plate,” he said at a briefing this week.
Cathay, like most of its rivals around the world, is struggling to cope with one of the worst downturns to hit the airline industry. This month it reported an operating loss of HK$765m for the first six months of the year.
Air China, in contrast, entered the latest round of negotiations with Cathay from a position of relative strength.
Helped by state support, Air China appears to be over the worst of the turmoil, reporting a 50 per cent jump in profits for the first six months of the year. It is the largest airline in the world by market capitalisation, ahead of Singapore Airlines, with a valuation almost double that of Cathay and nine times that of British Airways.
Christopher Pratt, chairman of both Swire and Cathay, said Cathay and Air China would continue to build on the existing co-operation.
“The new shareholding will not mean any change in the current strategy and operational and financial management of Cathay Pacific,” Mr Pratt said. “But I do expect to see more operational co-operation, the development of our code-share arrangements, personal training and the sharing of best practices, of which both airlines have much to offer each other.”
Quite how that co-operation, including a planned air cargo joint venture, will work remains to be seen. Air China is used to throwing its weight around in the domestic market, especially since Li Jiaxiang, Air China"s former chairman, was appointed the top official at the country"s civil aviation regulator.
Mr Li was promoted in the middle of the recent heated political battle over whether the government should allow Singapore Airlines, Cathay"s regional rival, to take a large stake in Shanghai-based China Eastern.
His elevation to the Civil Aviation Authority of China was seen as a victory for conservatives who wanted to keep foreigners out of the Chinese domestic market and develop one or two “super-carriers” that could compete globally.
In his 2007 book Route to Fly, Mr Li warned against foreign companies" “occupation of China"s air resources”.
Air China was able to block Singapore Airlines" planned investment in China Eastern this year through clever manoeuvring and strategic purchases of publicly traded China Eastern shares, although its own half-hearted attempt to absorb the carrier and its coveted Shanghai hub ultimately failed.
Even if Air China has now shifted its sights to Cathay, it still does not have a clear route to a takeover.
In addition to the terms of its earlier agreement with Swire and Cathay, Hong Kong"s international aviation agreements, governing route rights to other countries, require local airlines to be incorporated in the territory and maintain it as their “principal place of business”.
This has not prevented Hong Kong-based arms of the Chinese state from controlling local airlines in the past. But for Swire and Cathay it at least provides additional protection from too tight an embrace by Air China.
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