空管建设“十二五”规划点评：空管建设规划获批 打开航空未来发展空间
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: simsun, Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(43, 43, 43); "><div class="detail" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: auto; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "> <span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">评论</font></span>：<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> “十二五”末，空管保证飞机起降架次较“十一五”末翻番<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> “十二五”期末，空管保证飞机起降次数相较于“十一五”末接近翻番，同时将进一步优化空域，规划调整全国航路航线结构。中国民航未来几年仍处于成长期，但是受制于全国前16大机场时刻和流量资源饱和，大大限制了民航的发展。目前中国民航所使用的空域不足30%。如果空管系统提升，能够解决飞机起降架次增长问题，将有利促进民航的发展。尤其中西部的区域枢纽机场，像成都、昆明、西安、郑州等旅客增长速度明显快于东部<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">市场</font></span>，如果空管系统提升，那么连接三大枢纽机场与8大区域枢纽机场的优质干线将增加航班，刺激航空出行，同时提升航空公司的收益。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 空管系统建设放量，以国产<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">装备</font></span>化为主<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 根据《中国民用航空发展第十二个五年规划》，未来5年计划新增机场55个以上，到2015年，全国<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">运输</font></span>机场总数将达到230个以上，机场基础设计建设投资规模在4500亿元左右。新增机场建设将直接带动空管系统需求放量。“十二五”期间空管配套工程和基础设施建设投资相当于前两个五年规划的总和，同时将坚持走空管装备国产化道路。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 民航“十二五”规划也已经明确提出，要提高空管自动化水平，更新老旧空管自动化系统，升级和扩容空管自动化系统。推广应用空管新技术，提高空管<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">通信</font></span>、导航和监视能力。随着运输需求的持续上升和空域改革工作的推进，我国空管系统正处于新旧交替的关键阶段，对于新一代空管系统的需求进一步增加。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 目前我国的空管设备主要采用的是<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">美国</font></span>雷神和法国泰勒兹的技术。以空管自动化系统为例，我国空管自动化系统国产设备只占了大约30%的比例，而在国家“863计划”和国家科技支撑计划空管重大项目等支撑下，预计到“十二五”末期或者“十三五”初期，这一比例将达到80%。此外，雷达设备、导航设备等其他空管设备也将陆续通过政策鼓励、价格竞争等方式，推动国产设备的使用。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> <span class="black" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">川大智胜</font></span>(<span class="remystock" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; font-size: 12px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">加入自选股</font></span>)和<span class="black" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">四创<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "></span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">电子</font></span>(<span class="remystock" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; font-size: 12px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">加入自选股</font></span>)成为空管系统和雷达建设的最大受益者<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 川大智胜将成为空管系统国产化的最大受益者。空管市场属于管制领域，进入门槛相对较高，对技术的可靠性要求苛刻。川大制胜的空管指挥系统<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">产品</font></span>市场占有率居首。在模拟训练领域，公司的塔台模拟机、雷达模拟机和程序管制模块产品的市场占有率均在90%以上。机场航线和时刻资源紧张与民航的高速扩张之间的矛盾越来越突出，公司推出了飞行流量<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">管理</font></span>软件，提升航空管理的安全性。公司购入美国飞安公司D级模拟训练机，完成模拟机视景系统相关产品的研发，预计新产品在2012年年初将投放市场。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 四创电子是雷达国产化的最大受益者。航管雷达分为一、二次雷达，二者配合使用，既可以用于飞机飞行监视。公司2011年雷达业务<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">销售</font></span><span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">收入</font></span>市场占有率30%以上。现有机场设备更新与新机场建设配置新设备。在民航局空管总局在国内机场试用国产航管雷达时，公司是唯一获得民航航管一次雷达产品2年临时许可证<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">企业</font></span>。未来5年航管雷达市场规模达到100亿。公司大<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">股东</font></span>中电38所是国内特种雷达的重点生产企业，技术力量雄厚。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 低空空域改革继续深化，<span class="black" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">中信海直</font></span>(<span class="remystock" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; font-size: 12px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">加入自选股</font></span>)和<span class="black" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">海特高新</font></span>(<span class="remystock" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; font-size: 12px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">加入自选股</font></span>)受益<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 2010年11月15日，国务院、中央军委《关于深化我国低空空域管理改革的意见》颁布。《意见》将低空空域开放划分为三个阶段，2011年前为试点阶段，2011年至2015年底前为推广阶段，2016年至2020年为深化阶段。目前，在广州、长春、西安三地的改革试点已进行了两年。未来将继续深化，中信海直和海特高新受益于低空开放。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 中信海直作为中国通用航空运输的龙头企业，占据国内60%的海上<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">石油</font></span>钻井平台运输业务，为公司贡献了80%的业务收入和90%多的利润，公司海上石油钻井平台运输业务未来发展的重点是南海东部深海油田。低空开放后，公司未来看点还是在通航飞机放量后的飞机执管利润上。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 海特高新，公司不断改善管理制度；目前公司5台模拟机全天候满负荷工作，今年业务预计增长40%；公司维修技术成熟，我们判断已经具备飞机及发动机附件的制造领域。风险提示：估值偏高，概念题材。<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 维持航空业“强于大市”评级<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "> 国家加快建设空管系统，“十二五”期末，空管保证飞机起降次数比“十一五”末接近翻番，打开了国内<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">上市</font></span>航空企业南航、东航和国航及海航的发展空间，对<span class="black1" style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; "><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#000000">上市公司</font></span>是长期利好。同时川大智胜和四创电子充分受益于空管系统和雷达国产化。随着低空开放进程的加快，中信海直和海特高新逐步受益。维持航空业和通用航空企业“强于大市”的评级。</div><div><br></div></span>
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