交通运输：油价、高铁、汇率等因素利好航空
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 宋体, arial; line-height: normal; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 1px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 1px; ">2011-08-15 广发证券股份有限公司网站 </span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 宋体, arial; line-height: normal; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 1px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 1px; "><br></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 宋体, arial; line-height: normal; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 1px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 1px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; "><p align="center" style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 【交通运输行业研究报告内容摘要】</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 美国信用降级，将刺激人民币加速升值</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 标普下调美国主权信用评级，刺激人民币加速升值。预计人民币每升值1%，汇兑收益折合EPS 分别为国航0.035 元、南航0.037 元、东航0.026 元、海航0.028 元，并将刺激国际旅游消费。</p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 运力瓶颈凸现，客座率仍有空间</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 国内运力吃紧的局面将促成刚性需求支撑下的客座率和票价高位运行。7 月份国内航线的客座率达85%左右，比照国泰航空公司在欧洲和北美航线的客座率常高达90%以上，国内客座率仍有空间。</p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 京沪高铁再降速，分流影响进一步减弱</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 京沪高铁已经运营整一个月的时间，7 月沿线13 条航线旅客量同比下降24%，对国内整体运量分流1.2%，符合预期。铁道部将实行新的列车运行图，适当降低新建高铁初期的运营速度，未来分流影响进一步减弱。</p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 国际油价大幅调整，行业盈利趋势向好</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 近期国际油价大跌，新加坡航油在120 美元/桶下方波动，全年油价将可能呈现前高后低的走势。我们对今年行业盈利预测的假设条件是基于新加坡航油120 美元/桶的中枢价，油价下跌将对行业盈利有一定的增厚。</p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 投资建议：</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 近期国际油价大幅回调、高铁再降速、人民币加速升值等多因素利好航空板块，维持买入。重点推荐中国国航、海南航空、南方航空和东方航空。</p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "><strong> 风险提示：</strong></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "></p><p style="line-height: 18px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体, arial; font-weight: normal; "> 油价大幅上涨、高铁网络建成。</p></span></span></div>
页:
[1]