Monte Carlo Optimization for Conflict Resolution in Air Traffic Control

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Monte Carlo Optimization for Conflict Resolution in Air Traffic Control *
A. Lecchini†, W. Glover*, J. Lygeros‡and J. Maciejowski*
Abstract
The safety of the flights, and in particular separation assurance, is one of the main tasks of Air Traffic Control. Conflict resolution refers to the process used by air traffic controllers to prevent loss of separation. Conflict resolution involves issuing instructions to aircraft to avoid loss of safe separation between them and, at the same time, direct them to their destinations. Conflict resolution requires decision making in the face of the considerable levels of uncertainty inherent in the motion of aircraft. We present a framework for conflict resolution which allows one to take into account such levels of uncertainty through the use of a stochastic simulator. The conflict resolution task is posed as the problem of optimizing an expected value criterion. Optimization of the expected value resolution criterion is carried out through an iterative procedure based on Monte Carlo Markov Chain. Simulation examples inspired by current air traffic control practice in terminal maneuvering areas and approach sectors illustrate the proposed conflict resolution strategy.
1 Introduction
In the current organization of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system the centralized Air Traffic Control (ATC) is in complete control of air traffic and ultimately responsible for safety. Before take off, aircraft file flight plans which cover the entire flight. During the flight, ATC sends additional instructions to them, depending on the actual traffic, to improve traffic flow and avoid dangerous encounters. The primary concern of ATC is to maintain safe separation between the aircraft. The level of accepted minimum safe separation may depend on the density of air traffic and the region of the airspace. For example, a largely accepted value for horizontal minimum safe separation between two aircraft at the same altitude is 5 nmi in general en-route airspace; this is reduced to 3 nmi in approach sectors for aircraft landing and departing. A conflict is defined as a situation of loss of minimum safe separation between two aircraft. If safety is not at stake, ATC
* Work supported by the European Commission under project HYBRIDGE, IST-2001-32460, and the HYCON Network of Excellence, FP6-IST-511368, and by Eurocontrol under project C20051E/BM/03.