IATA应对挑战的观点

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IATA应对挑战的观点冈特·马其尼格高级副总裁（安全/运行/基础设施）中国民航发展论坛2009年5月14日中国，北京
IATA的观点􀂸行业综述􀂸IATA的回应􀂸中国的形势
行业综述
我们面临的现实
行业处于危机之中
客货运输量陡然塌落-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06Mar-06May-06Jul-06Sep-06Nov-06Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09% change over0%5%10% yearAir freight international FTKsInternational premium passenger numbers国际高端旅客数量国际航空货运吨公里
企业的信心开始回升Business confidence survey results50556065nies-1001030354045Jan-1990Jan-1992Jan-1994Jan-1996Jan-1998Jan-2000Jan-2002Jan-2004Jan-2006Jan-2008US compa-50-40-30-20EU27 companiesEU27 companies(right scale)US companies(left scale)企业信心调查结果美国公司（左刻度）欧盟27成员国公司（右刻度）
自上世纪30年代以来最深重的衰退Forecasts for GDP growth - source: EIU4.3963.91.962.4468101.1-0.70.8-3.2-6.4-4.1-3.2-2.5-3-8-6-4-202USJapanEuropeASEANChinaMiddle EastLatinAmericaWorld% change over year20082009GDP增长预测-数据来源：EIU美国日本欧洲东盟中国中东拉美世界
导致出行人数急剧下滑Growth in global GDP and passenger kilometers flown101520er yea-10-505197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011% change ovr-4-202% change ov468er yearGlobal passenger kilometers flown (left World GDP (right scale)全球GDP增长与客公里变动情况世界GDP（右刻度）全球客公里变动（左刻度）
运输量可能会低于趋势值Global passenger kilometers flown10002000300040005000600070001980198419881992199620002004200820122016Billions14% lowerPre-crisis industry forecasts (ICAO FESG)Revised IATA forecast1980-821991-932001-032008-1017% lower全球客公里变动情况危机前行业预测（ICAO FESG）调整后IATA的预测
2009年预测净亏损47亿美元Global commercial airlines8.28.53.712.92.04.06.051015Operating margin, % (LHS)-13.0-11.3-7.5-5.6-4.1-0.1-8.5-4.7-6.0-4.0-2.00.019981999200020012002200320042005200620072008E2009F% sales-15-10-50US$ billionNet losses, $bn (RHS)全球商业航空公司边际经营利润（左侧）净亏损（右侧）
甲型H1NI流感带来新的不稳定因素
Traffic and Revenue Volumes 2008Within Americas and Longhaul RoutesMexico*49m pax (2%)$12bn (2%)Within Americas706m pax (32%)$151bn (26%)Americas - Europe80m pax (4%)$55bn (10%)Americas - Middle East5m pax (0.2%)$5bn (1%)Americas - Africa3m pax (0.1%)$3bn (0.5%)Americas - Asia Pacific40m pax (2%)$41bn (7%)Source: PaxISRoute / areaPassenger departures (% of global total)Passenger revenues (% of global total)* included in other route area totals2008美洲范围及飞往洲外远程航线的运输量及收入美洲范围7.06亿旅客（32%）1510亿美元（26%）墨西哥4900万旅客（2%）120亿美元（2%）美洲-亚太4000万旅客（2%）410亿美元（7%）美洲-欧洲8000万旅客（4%）550亿美元（10%）美洲-中东500万旅客（0.2%）50亿美元（1%）美洲-非洲300万旅客（0.1%）30亿美元（0.5%）
甲型H1N1流感
􀂸航空公司已准备就绪
􀂸根据威胁级别采取相应措施
􀂸23个国家出现约1900病例
􀂸IATA与WHO（世卫组织）及ICAO –安全第一
􀂸需要认真应对-但要避免过度反应!
IATA正在提供什么帮助?
IATA的重点
􀂸增强紧迫感
􀂸安全第一
􀂸着眼于效率和降低成本
􀂸战略规划与贯彻落实之间的平衡
2009 IATA工作重点:
携手战胜危机并采取行动总部危机战略行动规划地区贯彻落实长期战略问题-技术增强紧迫感
3+年
当前
全球安全形势2008
安全第一死亡率IATA成员公司重大事故率行业重大事故率
地区安全形势北美0.580.09拉美2.551.61欧洲0.420.29独联体6.430.00MENA1.891.08非洲2.124.09亚太0.582.76北亚0.000.88世界0.810.75红色= 2008 蓝色= 2007
航空保安及简化手续战略2009
􀂸协调航空保安技术规范
􀂸一站式航空保安
􀂸精简有效的安检
􀂸实现标准化API（先进旅客信息系统）及PNR（旅客姓名记录）
􀂸实现标准化旅客文件控制
􀂸实施货物安保项目
IATA的角色
􀂸实现100% 电子客票= 节约30亿美元
􀂸机场及空管部门提高效率= 节约35亿美元
􀂸最佳措施, 214条新航路以及103个机场实现流量改善= 节约50亿美元燃油成本
降低成本运动
*2008 IATA 预测航空器所有权•飞机利用率•航班时刻优化•航空器配置规范燃油消耗维修•维修项目优化•库存管理•采购•飞机健康监控运行成本•机组/员工•培训/资质•设备设施•基础设施建设24%36%12%11%(2005: 22%)(2005: 35%)分销变革旅客服务其他7%5%5%5%
节油/环境􀂸支柱1：技术􀂸建立飞机改装数据仓库使用新技术实现飞机升级􀂸2009技术路线图报告􀂸燃油替代品报告􀂸支柱2：运行􀂸“绿色小组”提供在场/远程协助􀂸燃油书–第4版􀂸基准报告目标= 8百万吨二氧化碳
􀂸实施节油措施􀂸启动有效的空管路线图􀂸支柱3：基础设施建设􀂸CDA(持续下降进近)运动􀂸Clean airspeed departure(清洁速度起飞)运动􀂸BN全面启动􀂸为实现环境友好的ATS提供指导􀂸灵活的路径选择及其带来的效益􀂸“绿色机场”运动节油/环境目标= 4百万吨二氧化碳
面向局方开展的意识运动–降低成本􀂸FTL(飞行时间限制)/FRMS（疲劳风险管理系统）= 10亿美元􀂸外籍承运人规章= 1亿美元􀂸医护= 1.5亿美元􀂸油箱= 6亿-20亿美元􀂸增加的保安要求= 20亿美元
IATA与中国的关系􀂸执行中的备忘录􀂸安全􀂸基础设施建设
圆满保障北京奥运会
但是未来仍然面临挑战
1.改善珠三角空域
2.航路使用效率
3.灵活的入境/出境点
珠三角空域减少116,550吨CO2
航路-世界地图
航路使用效率
减少520,000吨CO2
MORITPOLHOSIMLIARGUKSADLI灵活的入境/出境点-已实现的
减少13000吨CO2灵活的入境/出境点–已提出要求
谢谢
THANK YOU
Viewpoints of IATA –How to Face ChallengesGünther MatschniggSenior V.P. SO&I, IATA China Civil Aviation Development Forum14 May 2009Beijing, China
IATA’s Viewpoints􀂸Industry outlook􀂸IATA’s responses􀂸China situation
Status of the Industry
Our Reality
The Industry is in Crisis
Precipitous slump in freight and travel-25%-20%-15%-10%Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06Mar-06May-06Jul-06Sep-06Nov-06Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09% change ov-5%0%5%10%er yearAir freight international FTKsInternational premium passenger numbers
Business confidence starting to turn upBusiness confidence survey results50556065nies-1001030354045Jan-1990Jan-1992Jan-1994Jan-1996Jan-1998Jan-2000Jan-2002Jan-2004Jan-2006Jan-2008US compa-50-40-30-20EU27 companiesEU27 companies(right scale)US companies(left scale)
Deepest recession since the 1930sForecasts for GDP growth - source: EIU4.3963.91.962.4468101.1-0.70.8-3.2-6.4-4.1-3.2-2.5-3-8-6-4-202USJapanEuropeASEANChinaMiddle EastLatinAmericaWorld% change over year20082009
Resulting in a sharp fall in travelGrowth in global GDP and passenger kilometers flown101520er yea-10-505197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011% change ovr-4-202% change ov468er yearGlobal passenger kilometers flown (left World GDP (right scale)
Traffic likely to stay below trendGlobal passenger kilometers flown60007000100020003000400050001980198419881992199620002004200820122016Billions14% lowerPre-crisis industry forecasts (ICAO FESG)Revised IATA forecast1980-821991-932001-032008-1017% lower
Net loss of $4.7bn forecast for 2009Global commercial airlines8.28.53.712.92.04.06.051015Operating margin, % (LHS)-13.0-11.3-7.5-5.6-4.1-0.1-8.5-4.7-6.0-4.0-2.00.019981999200020012002200320042005200620072008E2009F% sales-15-10-50US$ billionNet losses, $bn (RHS)
New uncertainty with H1N1 flu
Traffic and Revenue Volumes 2008Within Americas and Longhaul RoutesMexico*49m pax (2%)$12bn (2%)Within Americas706m pax (32%)$151bn (26%)Americas - Europe80m pax (4%)$55bn (10%)Americas - Middle East5m pax (0.2%)$5bn (1%)Americas - Africa3m pax (0.1%)$3bn (0.5%)Americas - Asia Pacific40m pax (2%)$41bn (7%)Source: PaxISRoute / areaPassenger departures (% of global total)Passenger revenues (% of global total)* included in other route area totals
H1N1 Flu
􀂸Airlines are prepared
􀂸Measures established according to the threat level
􀂸23 countries with approximately 1900 cases
􀂸IATA works with WHO and ICAO –safety is number one priority
􀂸Need to take this seriously –but no overreaction!
What is IATA doing to help?
IATA Focus
􀂸Enhance sense of urgency
􀂸Safety is number one priority
􀂸Focus on efficiency and cost avoidance
􀂸Balance between strategy and implementation
2009 IATA Theme:
Defeating the Crisis Together and Taking ActionsHQCrisis Strategic Action PlanRegions ImplementationLong-term strategic issues –technologyEnhance the sense of urgency
3+ years
now
Global Safety Performance 2008Safety is #1 priority
Regional Safety PerformanceNAM0.580.09LATAM2.551.61EUR0.420.29CIS6.430.00MENA1.891.08AFI2.124.09ASPAC0.582.76NASIA0.000.88World0.810.75Red = 2008 Blue = 2007
Security and Facilitation Strategy 2009
􀂸Harmonise security technology specs
􀂸One Stop Security
􀂸Streamline security checks
􀂸Standardise API and PNR
􀂸Standardise Pax documentation control
􀂸Implement secure freight programme
IATA’s Role
􀂸100% e-ticketing implementation = US $3b in savings
􀂸Airport and ANSP efficiency gains = US $3.5b in savings
􀂸Best practices, 214 new routes and better traffic at 103 airports = US $5b in fuel savings
Cost Reduction Campaign
*2008 IATA ForecastA/C Ownership•A/C Utilization•Optimized Schedule•A/C Configuration Regs.Fuel•ConsumptionMaintenance•Maintenance Program Optimization•Inventory Management•rocurement•A/C Health MonitoringCost of Operation•Crews / staff•Training / qualification•Facilities •Infrastructure24%36%12%11%(2005: 22%)(2005: 35%)DistributionChargesPax ServicesOthers7%5%5%5%
Fuel Savings / Environment􀂸illar 1 Technology:􀂸A/C modification databank for new technology A/C upgrades􀂸Technology Roadmap Report 2009􀂸Alternative Fuel Report􀂸illar 2 Operations:􀂸“Green Team”support on-site/remote assistance􀂸Fuel Book –4thedition􀂸Benchmark reportGoal = 8m tonnes of CO2
􀂸Implement fuel savings activities 􀂸Launch an efficiency ATM roadmap 􀂸illar 3: Infrastructure:􀂸CDA Campaign􀂸Clean airspeed departure Campaign􀂸BN Rollout􀂸Guidance for Eco-friendly ATS􀂸Flexible routings and benefits􀂸“Green airports”campaignFuel Savings / EnvironmentGoal = 4m tonnes of CO2
Awareness Campaign with Regulators –Cost Avoidance􀂸FTL/FRMS = $1bn 􀂸Foreign OPS Spec= $100m 􀂸Medical = $150m􀂸Fuel Tank = $600m -$2bn􀂸lus Security = $2 bn
IATA and China Relationship􀂸MoU in Place􀂸Safety􀂸Infrastructure
Beijing Olympics Well Handled
But there are Still Challenges Ahead
1.Pearl River Delta Airspace Improvements
2.Routes efficiency
3.Flexible Entry/Exit Points
Pearl River Delta AirspaceSavings -116,550 tonnes of CO2
Routes -World Map
Route Efficiency
IATA Identified RoutesProposed RoutePresent RouteSavings –520,000 tonnes of CO2
MORITPOLHOSIMLIARGUKSADLIFlexible ENTRY/EXIT Points -Implemented
Savings -13 000 tonnes of CO2Flexible ENTRY/EXIT Points -Required
谢谢
THANK YOU