Air Traffic Management

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Air Traffic Management
Amedeo R. Odoni
September 17, 2002
Air Traffic
Management
• Objective: To review briefly some
developments regarding ATC/ATM,
primarily as they apply to airports
• Topics:
QGeneral Comments
QTraffic Flow Management
QIncreasing Airport Capacity
QAdvanced ATM Systems
QDifferences between US and Europe
ATM: Six fundamental components
1. Procedures and regulations; organization
of airspace
2. Human air traffic controllers
3. Automation systems (computers, displays,
decision support systems)
4. Communication systems (air, ground)
5. Surveillance systems (e.g., radar)
6. Navigation systems (e.g., VOR/DME, ILS,
GPS)
Complex Requirements for ATM
• Exceptional levels of safety
• Accommodate growing numbers of diverse
users in efficient traffic flows
• Mesh seamlessly humans and machines,
including increasingly sophisticated
automation aids
• Take advantage of new technology
• Evolve gradually without “discontinuities”
• Operate at reasonable cost to service providers
and users
Generations of ATM Systems
• First: no (or little) radar coverage; ATC
via communications only
• Second: analog radar coverage
• Third: digital (secondary) radar; upgraded
ground-based CNS; automation of many
data processing tasks
• Fourth: advanced automation aids; digital
data links; satellite-based CNS
Status of Air Traffic Management
• Dramatic Differences Among Nations
and Regions
• (Many) Developing Countries:
• “first” generation ATC systems with limited
(or no) radar coverage and few (often poorly
maintained) navaids
• Advanced Industrial Countries:
• mostly “third” generation systems with
digital radar and significant automation
• beginning to make transition to highly
automated fourth generation systems
Schematic Representation of ATM
System
Type of Facility Terminal Area Facilities En Route Facilities
Type of Control
Controlling
Facility
Airport Traffic
Control Towers
ApproachControl
Facilities
Air Route TrafficControl Centers
(ARTCCs)
Ground Traffic Control
Takeoff and Landing
Control
Approach and
Departure Control ATC During Transition and Cruise
En Route Airspace
Airspace
Airport Traffic Area ApproachControl
(Tracon Area)
Typically 5 nmi
And 3,000 ft AGL
Typically extending up
to 40 nmi + 10,000 ft
from the Airport
Transitional Phase
Typically 50-150 nmi
From Airport
Cruise Phase
Up to 60,000 ft
Typical Flight Time Typical Ground Time
5 - 10 min
Typical Flight Time
10 - 20 min
Typical Flight Time
10 - 20 min
Typical Flight Time
20 min to several hrs
Flight Profile Runway
Runway
Cost to Users of ATM
Constraints & Inefficiencies
• Generators of Costs:
Delays Missed Connections
Cancellations Indirect Routing
Diversions Sub-optimal Flight Paths
• Uncertainty as to True User Costs
• Reasonable Guess:
Cost to Airlines and Passengers ~ $4-6 billion/year,
in Europe alone and in United States alone
“Major Problem” Airports (2010)
Alternatives for Addressing Airport and
Terminal Airspace Capacity Problem
1. Increased airport capacity
– second, third, … airports
– new, larger airports to replace older ones
– more runways, etc. at existing ones
– improved ATM
2. Demand management
– total operations
– by time-of-day
3. Flow management; reduce cost and impacts of
unavoidable delays
4. Other modes of transportation; substitutes for
transportation (communications)
Definition and Fundamentals of
ATFM
• ATFM: Strategic planning and implementation of
regional and national flows to best “match” demand with
available capacity and minimize impact of congestion on
users and operators of ATM system
• Now vital element of both European and US ATM systems
• Basic steps:
(1) Prediction of potential overloads
(2) Development of strategies
(3) Implementation of strategies
• The tools for accomplishing (2) and (3):
• Ground-holding (more “strategic”)
• Re-routing, metering, speed control, sequencing
Time horizon ranges from months to ~30 minutes
Strategic and Tactical ATFM
Actions
Reduced Capacity at SFO Typically
Leading to Initiation of a GDP
The Ground Delay Problem
• Motivation: If long delays must be suffered, they
would be better taken on the ground, prior to
take-off
• Safety, workload, fuel
• Must be solved in the presence of uncertainty
regarding airport capacity
Q “Type 1 Error”
– Demand higher (or capacity lower) than expected,
leading to long airborne delays
Q “Type 2 Error”
– Demand lower (or cap. higher) than expected, leading
to unnecessary delays on the ground
• Highly dynamic environment
GDP Until 1998
• Prediction of Overload
Q Compare Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) for
Arrivals to Scheduled Demand
• Development of Strategy
Q Calculate delay required of each flight, First-
Scheduled, First-Served (FSFS), to meet AAR
• Implementation of Strategy
Q Issue Expected Departure Clearance Times
(EDCT’s) to aircraft
• Could we improve on this?
Concerns About “Old” GDPs:
Motivation for CDM
• Did not consider airline preferences regarding
flight priorities, crew connections, “banks”/
“waves”, etc.
• Was too conservative
• Did not deal well with uncertainty
• A “system-wide” viewpoint (instead of an
individual user’s): the ATFM system’s operator
(the FAA) effectively decided what is best for
everyone (“global” objective function)
Collaborative Decision-Making
(CDM) in U.S.
• New approach to traffic flow management
• Airline Operations Centers (AOCs) and
FAA share information on capacities,
delays, cancellations, preferences, etc.
• First experiments with GDPs at SFO and
EWR (1/98); adopted for all airports (9/98)
• Has already saved many $$ in delay costs
• Opportunity to work and make decisions
in real time with a common data base
• Greatly expanded scope and objectives at
this time
CDM Infrastructure
ATCSCC
FSS TRACON Tower
AOC
AOC
AOC
AOC
CDMNET
Old Tech Communications
Dynamic Slot Assignment System
under CDM
1. FAA estimates airport acceptance rate (AAR) at
arrival airport
2. FAA assigns slots to airlines according to AAR on
first-scheduled, first-served basis (“ration by
schedule”)
3. Each airline tells FAA how its own slots will be used
(substitutions and cancellations)
4. After cancellations become known, “compression”
is performed to take advantage of empty slots
5. FAA assigns controlled time of arrival (CTA) to each
flight and an associated controlled time of departure
(CTD)
6. (Future?) No CTDs: airline determines take-off time
for each flight to meet that flight’s CTA.
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 1 0700 0700 0
A 2 0700 0710 10
B 3 0705 0720 15
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 6 0710 0750 40
A 7 0720 0800 40
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 70
Total B 160
Total C 100
Total D 330
Example: Original Schedule and
Initial GDP Schedule
Example continued: A GDP
Scenario
• Flight A1 is cancelled
• Airline B ranks flights B3-B6 in the
order {B6, B4, B5, B3} in terms of
priority
Note: Under CDM rules airlines may
freely substitute within their own flight
schedule and can move any flight to a
slot which is not earlier than that
flight’s ETA
Modified GDP: Cancellation of A1
and Swapping of B3 and B6 Slots
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
Void Void -- 0710 --
B 6 0710 0720 10
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
A 7 0720 0800 40
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 60
Total B 160
Total C 100
Total D 320
Potential GDP if A Discloses
Cancellation of A1 to FAA
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
B 4 0705 0720 15
B 5 0710 0730 20
B 3 0705 0740 35
A 7 0720 0750 30
C 8 0720 0800 40
B 9 0740 0810 30
C 10 0740 0820 40
A 11 0820 0830 10
B 12 0840 0840 0
Total A 40
Total B 100
Total C 80
Total D 220
Potential GDP if A Does Not
Disclose Cancellation of A1
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
Void Void -- 0710 --
B 6 0710 0720 10
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
A 7 0720 0800 40
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 60
Total B 160
Total C 100
Total D 320
CDM Rules for Cancelled Flights
• CDM recognizes need to provide
incentives to airlines to share information
regarding flight cancellations and other
changes in plans
• CDM Rule: An airline that cancels a flight
has the right to advance later flights to the
first feasible slot which becomes available
as a result of the cancellation.
Substitutions under CDM Give Priority
to Airline Which Cancelled Flight
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
Void Void -- 0720 --
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
A 7 0720 0800 40
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 60
Total B 150
Total C 100
Total D 310
After Moving A7 Up….
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
A 7 0720 0720 0
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
Void -- -- 0800 --
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 20
Total B 140
Total C 100
Total D 260
Compression of Schedule
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
A 7 0720 0720 0
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
C 8 0720 0800 40
B 9 0740 0810 30
Void -- -- 0820 --
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 20
Total B 130
Total C 90
Total D 240
Final GDP under CDM after
Substitutions and Compression
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
A 7 0720 0720 0
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 3 0705 0750 45
C 8 0720 0800 40
B 9 0740 0810 30
A 11 0820 0820 0
C 10 0740 0830 50
B 12 0840 0840 0
Total A 0
Total B 130
Total C 90
Total D 220
Potential GDP if A Discloses
Cancellation of A1 to FAA
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 2 0700 0700 0
B 6 0710 0710 0
B 4 0705 0720 15
B 5 0710 0730 20
B 3 0705 0740 35
A 7 0720 0750 30
C 8 0720 0800 40
B 9 0740 0810 30
C 10 0740 0820 40
A 11 0820 0830 10
B 12 0840 0840 0
Total A 40
Total B 100
Total C 80
Total D 220
Airline Flight ETA CTA Delay
A 1 0700 0700 0
A 2 0700 0710 10
B 3 0705 0720 15
B 4 0705 0730 25
B 5 0710 0740 30
B 6 0710 0750 40
A 7 0720 0800 40
C 8 0720 0810 50
B 9 0740 0820 40
C 10 0740 0830 50
A 11 0820 0840 20
B 12 0840 0850 10
Total A 70
Total B 160
Total C 100
Total D 330
Original Schedule and Initial GDP
Schedule
Some “Open” Problems in CDM
• Accurate forecasting of demand, capacity,
delays
• Improvements to FSM software
• Airlines: how many and what flights to
cancel during GDPs?
• Setting the “airport acceptance rate” (AAR)
• Considering trade-offs between allocating
capacity to arrivals and departures
• GDP control strategies
• A real-time “slot exchange”?
• Collaborative routing
SFO Demand and Weather
Implications of CDM
• CDM represents a major change in ATM
environment
• Opportunity to work and make decisions
in real time with a common database
• Step toward decentralization and Free
Flight
• Immediate impacts on GDPs and routing
• Longer-term impacts on entire spectrum
of ATM operations
• Possibly unexpected developments
Examples of approaches to increasing
airside capacity and/or improving efficiency
Terminal area ATC automation aids
QTools for arrival scheduling, sequencing and spacing
QConvergent Runway Display Aid (CRDA)
QSurface traffic automation (TARMAC, SMA, A-SMCGS)
QDeparture planning tools (EDP)
• Wake-vortex separations
• Integrated terminal weather systems
• Precision runway monitor for closely-spaced parallel
approaches
• Split approaches to close parallels; multiple runway IFR
approaches
• ADS-B supported separations
• GPS-based precision approaches
Advanced Terminal Area
Automation Aids
Decision support for arrival processing:
• CTAS (Center TRACON Automation System, U.S.)
• COMPAS (Frankfurt)
• MAESTRO (Paris)
Terminal area transitioning, scheduling,
sequencing and spacing of airport arrivals: last
~40 minutes of flight
Several ongoing efforts to develop integrated
arrival/departure/surface decision support
systems
Impact of CTAS (p-FAST) on DFW
Arrival Rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
IFR, 2
Runways
IFR, 3
Runways
VFR, 3
Runways
Arrival Rate (aircraft/hour)
Baseline
FAST
Mid-morning rush data (source: Mr. T. Davis, NASA Ames)
Separation Assurance
Considerations
PROCEDURAL
SAFETY
BUFFER
PERSONAL
SAFETY BUFFER
MINIMUM
SEPARATION
STANDARD
HAZARD
ZONE
SURVEILLANCE
UNCERTAINTY
Surveillance & Procedural Safety
Buffer Components
Procedural safety buffer
now implicitly contains:
Q Controller
• Detection
• Comprehension
• Resolution
Q Communication
Q Pilot
• Detection
• Comprehension
• Action
Q Other ?
Surveillance uncertainty
contains:
Q Position uncertainty
Q Update rate
Q Velocity &
acceleration
uncertainty
• Initial standards based primarily on surveillance uncertainty
• Hazard recovery now implicitly contained within standard?
Improved Surveillance Has Not Led To
Significantly Reduced Separations
WHEN STANDARDS
WERE DEVELOPED
(e.g. 1950s for en route radar)
IMPROVED SURVEILLANCE
ENVIRONMENT
(e.g. today for en route radar)
• Surveillance has improved, but separation minima
have not changed: procedural safety buffer has
implicitly increased
Minimum
Separation
Standard
Trend to Less Centralized
ATM
• New technologies and user concerns
exert strong pressure toward some
decentralization of ATM systems
• “Free Flight” concept is an example
• May mean significant departure from
current approaches to ATM
• Fundamental issues need to be
investigated
Free Flight
• “A safe and efficient flight operating capability
under IFR in which the operators have the
freedom to select their path and speed in real
time. Air traffic restrictions are only imposed to
ensure separation, to preclude exceeding airport
capacity, to prevent unauthorized flight through
special use airspace and to ensure safety of
flight. Restrictions are limited in extent and
duration to correct the identified problem. Any
activity which removes restrictions represents a
move toward “free flight.”
Report of RTCA Board of Directors Select Committee on
Free Flight (1/95)
Future of ATM Globally
• Essential components
• Satellite-based communications, navigation, and
surveillance (CNS)
• Use of Global Navigation Satellite Systems such as
GPS and GLONASS
• Digital data links
• Flight Management Systems
• Conflict probes, collision avoidance systems
• Opportunity for countries with less
developed ATM systems to “leapfrog”
• ATM in oceanic and remote areas will be
first to benefit in important ways