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航空

Delta Air Lines
Dennis Newman
VP –Network Planning
China Civil Aviation Development Forum 2009
May 15, 2009
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2–4 players~100% market shareBoeingAirbusAircraft manu-facturers2 playersTop Two 66% market shareAirlines Are Encircled By Strong PlayersWeakest Position In The Value Chain
(1)Typical operational margin (% of turnover)
Source(s): AEA CateringUsually monopoly or duopolyAirports2 players45% market shareILFCGECASAircraftlessors4 players85% market share in 3SabreAmadeusGalileoGDSIndustry structureAirlinesFirst 10 players 43% market share (by RPK)Top 10: 35%Top 25: 69%Top 50: 84%AirlinesProfit-ability(1)16%16%8%17%4%-2%Airlines rarely earn their cost of capital
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•Lack of Asian presence •Limited presence in major business markets•Limited position on U.S. West Coast•Facility / market needs in New York City•Long-term economic viability in light of high fuel prices and weak economic cycles•RASM below industry norms•International hubs in Atlanta and New York-JFK•Leading Transatlantic position•SkyTeam alliance and largest, immunized Transatlantic JV with Air France and KLM•Leading position on U.S. East Coast•Significant Latin America position•Strong balance sheet and best-in-class CASMStrategic Gaps Difficult To Address As Standalone…To Be a True Global Competitor, Delta Needed to Address Strategic GapsWhile Delta Had Some Competitive Strengths…
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Strategic Imperatives Required For A Merger•Synergy capture and combined financials superior to standalone plan•Merger enhances value generated from alliance relationships•ilot agreement prior to merger with acceptable economics•Combination that reduces long-term risk versus standalone plan•Employee equity and industry standard pay •Stronger brand survives with management retained•Best aspects of each culture preserved•“Fair and equitable”seniority integration process•Management judgment that transaction can be consummated (government approval) and integration successfully completed
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Merger Objectives•Create world’s largest airline with best-in-class cost structure •Combine complementary networks with Delta’s strong European presence and Northwest’s position in Asia•Create the largest, most balanced domestic U.S. network providing superior connectivity to the U.S. for international service and SkyTeam partners•Merge existing Delta / Air France and Northwest / KLM partnerships to form the largest immunized Transatlantic joint venture•Affirm membership in SkyTeam and support future growth complementary to Delta’s network•Strengthen market presence in key business markets•reserve ability to weather economic cyclicality and manage fuelvolatility•Generate opportunities to achieve significant revenue and cost synergies•Seize first-move advantage
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Market Conditions Were Favorable For A MergerGrowth of low-cost carriers created new competition that offset historical regulatory concernsRecent restructuring left legacy carriers healthier, but still challenged by all-time high fuel costsGlobal consolidation has created more efficient, competitive, and financially stable carriersIncreased foreign competition to the U.S. Regulatory environment was conducive to successfully closing a transaction in a timely manner12345
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Airline Industry CharacteristicsStrategicResponseBenefits of Delta /Northwest Merger•Volatile fuel prices•Aggressive capacity & cost management •Reduce 50-seat RJs•Install winglets •Best-in-class costs; $2B in synergies•>$4B total cost savings in bankruptcy•Commoditization•Focus on brand & high-value products•Offer differentiation•Retain Delta brand•Leading self-service functionality•Superior operations•Difficult value chain position•Increase global scale•Grow network•#1 or #2 in every region•Complementary mix of Airbus / Boeing fleets •Global competition•Add growing, but underserved markets•Expand JVs•Optimal matching of capacity with demand•Only complete worldwide network•Largest immunized JV•Comprehensive fleet portfolio•Cyclicality and uncertainty•Strengthen the balance sheet•Diverse sources of revenue•$6B+ in liquidity•Durable enterprise•Best-in-class returns
Reforming The Business Model To Solve The Historic
ChallengesDifficult to Replicate•Requires Chapter 11 restructuring•Merge complementary networks & schedules•End-to-end global network•#1 loyalty program •1952 US-Japan treaty governs air-service rights•Capitally intensive to reproduce organically•No other carrier matches diversified global network•World’s largest airline•Scale of operations
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•World’s largest airline
•Largest immunized Transatlantic joint venture with Air France / KLM
•#1 U.S. domestic carrier, #1 U.S. carrier across the Atlantic, #1 U.S. carrier to Asia and #1 U.S. carrier to Africa
•#1 or #2 carrier in more U.S. cities than any other airline
•Largest frequent flier program with more than 74 million members
•More than 4,000 daily flights to nearly 400 destinations in morethan 60 countries
•Service to 905 destinations in 169 countries through SkyTeam Alliance partners
•Most lounges in the U.S. and access to more than 400 worldwide via SkyTeam partners
Combination Creates Leading Global Carrier
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DomesticNW #7JapanNW #1Latin America#10TransatlanticNW #5AsiaNW #2Flying Solo…Fragmented Market PositionLatin AmericaDL #2AfricaDL #1TransatlanticDL #1DomesticDL #3JapanDL #5AsiaDL #5
Source: OAG, Jul 2008 (ranking based on U.S. carriers only)
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Domestic#1Africa#1Transatlantic#1Flying Together…Leading Global AirlineJapan#1Latin America#2Asia#1
Source: OAG, Jul 2009 (ranking based on U.S. carriers only, as of January 28, 2009)
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Network Diversity Mitigates Risk
Creates a natural hedge against pockets of weakness010203040506070809010020052006200720082009E2010E
Less Reliance On Domestic Markets1InternationalDomestic
1Reflects capacity mix for month of August for DL standalone 2005-2008 and DL+NW 2009-2010.
2Source: July 2009 OAGDLAACOUAUSME/Africa/IndiaPacificLatin/CaribbeanW. EuropeE. EuropeHeathrowInternational Mix By Region2
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Example:European Peak (Apr-Oct) International widebodycapacity matched to seasonal demandLarger aircraft redeployed to hubs and high density routesExampleortland –Amsterdam A330-200 767-300New York (JFK) –Amsterdam 767-300 A330-200Current ScheduleNarrowbody aircraft scheduled based on capacity and capability•Use small, narrow-body domestic aircraft to upgrade high demand markets served by single-class regional jets•Optimization of mission capable aircraft across the combined network􀀴􀀴Future ScheduleLatin Peak (Nov-Mar) 747-400747-400767-300ER767-300ERAtlanta –RomeAtlanta –Sao PauloFleet Options Enable Flexible NetworkEnhanced ability to adjust capacity as demand environment changes􀀴
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Merger Creates Significant Value For StakeholdersCustomers/ CommunitiesEmployeesShareholders•Better positions combined airline vs. consolidating European carriers and other financially strong, growing foreign carriers•Enhances ability to offset increases in the price of oil•Generates revenue and cost synergies to drive industry leading returns•Creates the world’s largest global carrier•Builds geographically balanced network •Enables reinvestment in innovative products and services to improve the customer experience•Distributed equity grants upon transaction closing•Creates a financially stronger company with more
stability and a move to industry standard pay
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•Annual synergies will exceed $2.0B by 2012
–Revenue synergies = $1.6B
–Cost synergies = $0.4B
•Will generate $500M in synergy benefits during 2009
•One-time cash integration costs estimated at $500M
Merger expected to be accretive to shareholders
in year one including cash integration costs
Delivering $2 Billion In Annual SynergiesSynergy PhaseSynergy Phase--in ($B)2009201020112012RevenueCost2.0 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.5
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•Complete fair and equitable seniority integration •Achieve Single Op Certificate•Combine Transatlantic JVs•Integrate frequent flier programs•Harmonize on-board product•Roll-out new uniforms to pilots, flight attendants and gate / ticket agents•Re-brand all domestic stations•aint aircraft with a total of 300+ completed by year-end•Realize at least $500M in synergiesSubstantial Progress To Date; Pace To Accelerate•Management team in place•Seniority integration resolved for 25% of Delta’s workforce •FAA approved plan for achieving Single Operating Certificate•New AMEX affinity card•New frequent flier program designed•Fees / policies harmonized•Re-branded 137 of the airports in which Northwest operates•42 NW aircraft painted in DL liveryKey Milestones Achieved Since DOJ ApprovalKey Milestones Planned For 2009
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美国达美航空
丹尼斯纽曼
副总裁–网络规划
中国民航发展论坛
2009年5月15日
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2-4 家~100%市场份额Boeing 波音Airbus 空客飞机制造商航空公司被众多高手包围处于价值链最薄弱位置2 家前两家占66%市场份额
(1)典型的边际运营利润(占吞吐量百分比)
数据来源: AEA 配餐公司通常由一家或两家垄断机场2 家45% 市场份额ILFCGECAS飞机租赁商4 家3家占85%市场份额SabreAmadeusGalileo全球分销系统行业结构Airlines前10家占43%市场份额（按收入客公里）Top 10: 35%Top 25: 69%Top 50: 84%航空公司获利能力(1)16%16%8%17%4%-2%航空公司很少能收回成本
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•亚洲市场上处于弱势•在重要的商业市场上份额不足•在美国西海岸航线表现不活跃•纽约的基础设施/市场需求•在高油价和经济低迷情况下思考企业的长期经济活力•可用座公里收入低于行业标准•在亚特兰大和纽约肯尼迪机场拥有国际枢纽•跨大西洋运输处于领先地位•天合联盟成员，以及与法航和KLM合资的最大的经政府批准的跨大西洋航线联营体•在美国东海岸占据领先位置•在拉美航空市场占有重要位置•良好的资产负债情况和最佳的CASM(可用座英里成本)沿袭独立运作模式将无法弥补战略差距…但要真正成为全球竞争者，达美航需要弥补战略上的缺陷尽管达美航具有一些竞争优势…
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实施合并需要考虑的战略因素•通过协同运作与资金整合使企业获得独立运作所不具备的优势•合并可以增加联盟关系产生出的价值•以可接受的经济补偿方式在合并前达成飞行员工会间协议•相对于独立运作模式，企业合并降低长期风险•员工股权和行业标准薪酬•只有较强一方保住了自身品牌，但双方的管理层均得以保留•双方企业文化中的最佳方面得以保留•公正平等地整合双方的资历排序方案•管理层关于交易是否完整(政府批准)和整合是否成功的判断
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合并的目标•创建具有最佳成本结构的世界最大航空公司•将达美航在欧洲市场的强势与美西北航在亚洲的地位相结合，形成优势互补的航线网络•创建规模最大,最平衡的美国国内航线网络，为通往美国的国际航班和天合联盟合作伙伴提供优良的连接性•将现有的达美航/法航以及美西北/KLM合作关系进行合并，以形成最大的经政府批准的的跨大西洋联营体•巩固天合联盟的成员地位，并对能够补充达美航航线网络的未来发展给以支持•加强达美航在重要商务市场中的地位•保持对经济周期的预测能力以及针对油价不稳定状况进行管理的能力•创造机会争取大量盈利并实现成本协同效益•获得先动优势
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市场条件有利于合并低成本航空公司的发展带来新的竞争，从而消除了局方一直以来的担心老牌航空公司在新一轮的重组中获得良性发展，但始终面临高油价成本的挑战全球性整合造就了一批更高效，更有竞争力，财务更稳定的航空公司来自于美国以外的竞争不断加剧政策环境有利于适时地顺利完成交易12345
6航空公司行业特点战略应对措施达美/西北合并的效益•油价的不确定性•积极扩充运力及加强成本管理•减少50座的支线飞机•安装翼梢小翼•业内最佳成本控制;形成20亿美元成本协同效益•相比破产节约成本超40亿美元•商品化进程•着眼品牌和高价值产品•提供差异性产品•保留达美航品牌•领先的自助服务功能•一流的运营模式•身处价值链不利位置带来的难题•扩大全球规模•发展网络•在各地区均占据第一或第二位置•融合波音和空客飞机形成优势互补的机队•全球性竞争•打入处于发展期但服务不足的航空市场•扩大联营体•运力与需求间实现优化匹配•唯一完整的全球性网络•最大的政府批准的联营体•全面的机队组合•周期性和不确定性•加强资产负债表•丰富收入来源•超过60亿美元的流动性资金•具有持久性的企业•最佳的回报率改革经营模式应对历史性挑战难以复制•按照第11章进行重组•对互补的网络和航班时刻进行合并•端到端全球网络•第一位的旅客忠诚度项目•1952 美-日条约帮助新达美在航权方面受益•想要再现这样的合并需要极雄厚的资金•其他航空公司无法匹敌如此多样化的全球网络•世界最大的航空公司•运营规模
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•世界上最大的航空公司
•与法航/KLM共同形成最大的经政府批准的跨大西洋航线联营体
•美国国内最大的航空公司, 跨大西洋航线上最大的美国航空公司, 以及亚洲和非洲航线上最大的美国航空公司
•达美航能够在最多数美国城市跻身当地第一或第二大航空公司
•拥有7,400万会员的最庞大常旅客计划
•每天超过4000次航班飞往60多个国家的近400个目的地
•与天合联盟伙伴公司合作飞往169个国家的905个目的地
•拥有休息厅数量位居美国第一，并可以通过天合联盟合作伙伴使用全球另外400多个休息厅
合并造就了全球领先的航空公司
8美国美西北#7日本美西北#1拉美美西北#10跨大西洋美西北#5亚洲美西北#2“单飞”…市场支离破碎拉美达美航#2非洲达美航#1跨大西洋达美航#1美国达美航#3日本达美航#5亚洲达美航#5
数据来源: OAG, 2008年7月(排名仅限美国航空公司)
9美国#1非洲#1跨大西洋#1“共同飞”…全球领先航空公司日本#1拉美#2亚洲#1
数据来源: OAG, 2009年7月(排名仅限美国航空公司，2009年1月28日)
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多元化网络有效降低风险
形成规避风险的天然屏障010203040506070809010020052006200720082009E2010E
减少对国内市场的依赖1国际国内
1采用每年8月份运力组合数据，对比2005-2008年达美航单独运行情况和2009-1010年合并后的情况。
2数据来源: 2009年7月OAGDLAACOUAUS中东/非洲/印度太平洋拉美/加勒比地区西欧东欧伦敦/希思罗按地区组合国际航线2
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例如欧洲旺季(4月-10月)国际宽体客机运力满足季节性需求较大型飞机重新部署到枢纽机场和高密度航线上例如波特兰—阿姆斯特丹A330-200 767-300纽约(JFK) –阿姆斯特丹767-300 A330-200目前排班窄体飞机根据容量和能力进行排班•把小型窄体国内航线上的飞机投向目前由单一舱位支线飞机执飞的高需求市场以完成市场升级•对适应任务需求的飞机进行优化，将其用于不同类网络间的衔接􀀴􀀴未来排班拉美旺季(11月-3月)747-400747-400767-300ER767-300ER亚特兰大—罗马亚特兰大—圣保罗机队多种组合满足灵活的网络需求提高根据需求环境变化灵活调整运力的能力􀀴
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合并为股东带来重大价值客户/社会员工股东•形成世界最大的全球性航空公司•形成地理区域均衡分布的航线网络•促进再投资用于创新产品和服务,提升客户的满意度•市场组合情况改善，与欧洲航空公司及其他财务状况良好的国外成长型航空公司进行整合•有能力消除油价上涨带来的负面影响•创收加成本协同带来行业领先的回报率•交易结束后向员工分配股权•公司财务更加雄厚稳定，能够实现行业标准薪酬
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到2012年每年带来超过20亿美元收益
–收入协同= $16亿
–成本协同= $4亿
•2009年将创造5亿美元协同利润
•一次性现金整合成本约合5亿美元
合并第一年股东收益可望增殖，包括现金整合成本
协同效应使达美航每年受益20亿美元阶段性协同效应($B)($B)2009201020112012收入成本2.0 1.6 1.1 0.5
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•以公正平等的原则完成资历排序整合•获得单一运营执照•整合跨大西洋联营体•整合常旅客计划•统一机上产品•为飞行员,乘务员和机场/售票服务人员推出新制服•为所有国内航站更换品牌•截止年底给300架以上飞机喷漆•实现至少5亿美元的整合效应目前取得重大进展; 加快发展步伐•管理团队到位•达美航25%的员工解决了资历排序整合问题•申请单一运营执照的计划获FAA批准•推出最新的AMEX慈善信用卡•设计完成最新的常旅客计划•收费/政策实现统一•在美西北运营的137家机场更换品牌•42架原美西北飞机换上达美航涂装获司法部批准后实现的里程碑事件2009年计划实现的里程碑事件
15一家伟大的航空公司