全球经济发展预期与民用航空需求预测

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BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These
statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on
certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.
兰迪·廷赛思
市场营销副总裁
波音民用飞机集团
2009年5月全球经济发展预期与民用航空需求预测
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议程
􀂃对当前市场的评估􀂃20年预测
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航空公司面对挑战性的市场􀂃世界经济不景气􀂃客流和货运量下降􀂃动荡的燃油价格􀂃不确定的金融市场􀂃对环保的关注􀂃航空公司的盈利面临持续压力
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-4-20246810121420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
世界经济于2010年恢复增长世界中国GDP增长真实值的百分比
来源：Global Insight
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议程
􀂃对当前市场的评估􀂃20年预测
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY
自1978年以来，世界航空旅行年增长率为5.3%
RPKs= 收益客公里
来源：国际民航组织，定期航班的运输量0123451977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007RPKs (
trillions)趋势第二次石油危机衰退第一次海湾战争衰退9/11 第二次海湾战争衰退金融危机衰退1978198019982002200420062008200019821984198819861990199219941996
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20年预测：
强劲的长期增长世界经济（GDP）航空公司乘客人数航空公司客运流量（收益客公里）货运流量（收益吨公里）市场增长率
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通过增加航班频率和直达航班来满足
航空旅行的增长航班频率的增长直飞市场飞机平均尺寸航空旅行的增长8月份的官方航空公司指南（OAG）全球指数1988=1.000.51.01.52.02.53.019881990199219941996199820002002200420062008所有航线
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航空公司将需要29,400架新飞机，
价值3.2万亿美元
飞机架数
市场价值，10亿美元2,510支线机9%19,160单通道飞机65%6,750双通道飞机23%980747及更大型飞机3%飞机交付量：29,400架2008-2027年市场价值：3.2万亿美元2008-2027年800亿支线机2%1.36万亿单通道飞机43%1.47万亿双通道飞机46%2900亿747及更大型飞机9%1,6001,200800400020,00015,00010,0005,0000
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替代效率较低的老龄飞机的需求很大
架数35,80035,80019,00019,000010,00020,00030,0002007202716,800架新飞机以满足增长的需求，占57%16,80012,600架新飞机用于替换老龄飞机，占43%6,400架保留的飞机40,00029,400
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来源：Global Insight
新兴市场推动经济增长1.3%2.1%3.1%3.2%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.4%5.1%6.4%7.1%东北亚欧洲北美大洋洲全球中美南美中东独联体东南亚非洲西南亚中国3.8%2.5%每年GDP的增长2007 –2027年
地区
增长
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亚洲经济实力的分布正在改变
2007
2027
*其它= 菲律宾、孟加拉国、新西兰、越南、澳门、柬埔寨和老挝日本46.7%中国21.1%泰国1.5%印度尼西亚2.1%马来西亚1.2%新加坡1.2%其它*2.8%印度7.0%澳大利亚4.3%韩国6.3%台湾3.7%香港2.1%日本25.3%中国38.6%印度尼西亚2.3%泰国1.7%马来西亚1.3%新加坡1.2%其它*3.5%印度11.5%香港2.1%台湾3.4%澳大利亚3.6%韩国5.6%
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收益客公里，以10亿为单位
*包括中国
航空旅行的增长各市场有所不同
中东-亚太非洲-欧洲欧洲-拉丁美洲东南亚拉丁美洲北美-拉丁美洲跨太平洋欧洲-亚太北大西洋中国欧洲北美亚太*2007年的运输量运输量的增长2008-2027年增长%%8.9%4.7%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0004.8%6.7%7.8%4.7%5.4%5.7%5.7%5.6%3.5%2.8%7.0%全球平均增长：5.0%
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新飞机在各地区的市场呈明显更加均衡的分布各地区的飞机交付量2008-2027年各地区的市场价值2008-2027年地区亿美元
市场价值：3.2万亿美元
新飞机的交付量：29,400架地区飞机架数市场价值3.2万亿美元飞机交付量29,400架亚太北美欧洲和中亚*中东拉丁美洲非洲全球总交付量9,1608,5507,8501,5801,70056029,400亚太北美欧洲和中亚*中东拉丁美洲非洲全球总价值1.19万74008100260014006003.2万亿
*包括俄罗斯
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中国是全世界最具活力的市场21983911031022021841611410501001502002502000200120022003200420052006200720085616366987778911,0301,1571,3251,43402004006008001,001,2001,4001,600200020012002200320042005200620072008来源：Airclaims来源：国际民航组织和中国民航局
包括香港和澳门中国客运市场翻番市场的扩张仍将继续中国喷气机队规模翻番未来的增长率为4-6%现役机队，每年年底的统计值乘客数，百万
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中国航空旅行的增长各市场有所不同收益客公里，以10亿为单位2007年的运输量运输量的增长2008-2027
年增长%6.9%10.0%6.0%4.5%5.2%6.1%5.8%8.9%5.8%020040060080010001200非洲西南亚中东大洋洲东北亚东南亚北美欧洲中国国内本地区平均增长：7.9%本地区的GDP年增长率：7.1%
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中国的航空公司将需要3,700架新飞机747及更大型飞机双通道飞机单通道飞机支线机2008-2027年机队所占比例Market value: $390 billion交付飞机架数架现役飞机架现役飞机架新飞机市场价值：3900亿美元
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值得记住的要点
􀂃2009年富有挑战性和变化不定的市场
􀂃航空业具有活力；长期市场展望依然强劲
􀂃根据预测，行业的年增长率为5%—中国的年增长率将达到7.9%
􀂃未来20年，全球将需要29,400架新飞机，价值3.2万亿美元—中国将需要3,700架新飞机，价值3900亿美元
􀂃中国是全世界最具活力的航空市场
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.
欲了解更多信息，请访问我的博客：
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These
statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on
certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.
Randy Tinseth
Vice President, Marketing
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
May 2009GlobalEconomicDevelopmentExpectationandCivilAviationDemandForecast
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Agenda
􀂃Current market assessment􀂃20-year forecast
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Airlines face a challenging market􀂃World economy in recession􀂃assenger and cargo traffic in decline 􀂃Volatile fuel prices􀂃Uncertain finance market􀂃Environmental focus􀂃rofit under continued pressureCOPYRIGHT
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY
-4-20246810121420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
World economic growth to return in 2010WorldChinaPercentage of real GDP growth
Source: Global Insight
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Agenda
􀂃Current market assessment􀂃20-year forecast
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World air travel has grown 5.3% per year since 1978
RPKs= Revenue Passenger Kilometers
Source: ICAO, Scheduled Traffic0123451977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007RPKs (
trillions)Trend2ndOil ShockRecessionGulf War IRecession9/11 Gulf War IIRecessionFinancial CrisisRecession1978198019982002200420062008200019821984198819861990199219941996
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20-year forecast:
strong long-term growthWorldeconomy(GDP)Numberof airlinepassengersAirlinetraffic(RPK)Cargotraffic(RTK)
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Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstopsFrequency GrowthNonstop MarketsAverage Airplane Size Air Travel GrowthAugust OAGWorldIndex 1988=1.000.51.01.52.02.53.019881990199219941996199820002002200420062008All routes
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Airlines will need 29,400 new airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion
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A large demand for replacing older, less efficient aircraft
Units35,80035,80019,00019,000010,00020,00030,0002007202716,80016,800GrowthGrowth57%57%12,60012,600ReplacementReplacement43%43%6,4006,400Retained FleetRetained Fleet40,00029,400
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Source: Global Insight
Emerging markets are driving the economic growth
1.3%2.1%3.1%3.2%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.4%5.1%6.4%7.1%Northeast AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaOceaniaWORLDCentral AmericaSouth AmericaMiddle EastCISSoutheast AsiaAfricaSouthwest AsiaChina3.8%2.5%ANNUAL GDP GROWTH2008 –2027
Regions
Growth
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Asian economic power distribution is shifting
2007
2027
*Others = Philippines, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Vietnam, Macau, Cambodia, and LaosJapan46.7%China21.1%Thailand1.5%Indonesia2.1%Malaysia1.2%Singapore1.2%Others*2.8%India7.0%Australia4.3%South Korea6.3%Taiwan3.7%Hong Kong2.1%Japan25.3%China38.6%Indonesia2.3%Thailand1.7%Malaysia1.3%Singapore1.2%Others*3.5%India11.5%Hong Kong2.1%Taiwan3.4%Australia3.6%South Korea5.6%
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RPKs, billions
*includes China
Air travel growth varies by market
Middle East –Asia-PacificAfrica -EuropeEurope -Latin AmericaSoutheast AsiaLatin AmericaNorth America -Latin AmericaTranspacificEurope -Asia PacificNorth AtlanticChinaEuropeNorth AmericaAsia-Pacific*2007 traffic2007 trafficAdded traffic2008-2027Added 2027AnnualAnnualgrowth%growth%8.9%4.7%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0004.8%6.7%7.8%4.7%5.4%5.7%5.7%5.6%3.5%2.8%7.0%WorldAverageGrowth:5.0%
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Market for new airplanes set to become
considerably more geographically balanced
*Includes Russia
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China is the world’s most dynamic market21983911031022021841611410501001502002502000200120022003200420052006200720085616366987778911,0301,1571,3251,4340200400600001,0001,2001,4001,600200020012002200320042005200620072008Source: AirclaimsSource: ICAO & CAAC
Includes Hong Kong and Macau
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China air travel growth varies by marketRPKs, billions2007 traffic2007 trafficAdded traffic2008-2027Added 2027
Annual
growth %6.9%10.0%6.0%4.5%5.2%6.1%5.8%8.9%5.8%020040060080010001200AfricaSouthwest AsiaMiddle EastOceaniaNortheast AsiaSoutheast AsiaNorth AmericaEuropeIntra-ChinaRegion’s Average Growth: 7.9%Region’s AverageGDP Growth: 7.1%
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China’s airlines will need 3,700 new airplanes747 and largerTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jets2008-2027Share of fleet
Market value: $390 billion
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Things to remember
􀂃Challenging and volatile business environment in 2009
􀂃Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong
􀂃5% annual growth projected –China annual growth will be 7.9%
􀂃29,400 new airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion needed over next 20 years –China will need 3,700 new airplanes valued at $390 billion
􀂃China is the world’s most dynamic aviation market
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.
For more information, please visit my blog:
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/

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